Atmospheric river pummeling the PNW

Sunday, September 29, 2013 at 11:47 am

Breezy and mostly cloudy conditions currently exist in Northern Utah thanks to a strong jet stream that is pushing copious moisture into the Pacific Northwest.  Here is an NWS point forecast for Mt. Baker, WA over the next few days:



If you are to believe their computer-generated snowfall predictions, the top of Baker should see well over 100 inches of the snow over the next few days.  Unfortunately, that atmospheric river should stay to our north.  I expect breezy weather and mostly cloudy skies to continue through Tuesday with a chance for a few light showers in far northern Utah.  Here is a the forecasted QPF staying mostly to our north over the next five days:



Utah’s next real chance at precipitation will be late Wednesday and Thursday.  The zonal flow will start to amplify later this week which will cause the jet to buckle as a ridge builds along the West Coast.  This amplification will drop a cold system into the Northern Rockies and northern Great Basin.  Models strengthen this system as it drops southeast.  There are a lot of questions as to the exact track and strength of this system.  Right now, it looks like we are guaranteed colder temperature for Thursday and Friday, but snowfall is harder to forecast.  At this point, I would be surprised if we saw anything more than a few inches in the high elevations.

It looks like we dry out and warm up again next weekend.  Model performance lately has been erratic, so I’m not going to even bother looking beyond the next 7 days.

More information on the Thursday system tomorrow . . .


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