Cool weather, finally!

Thursday, September 19, 2013 at 9:05 am

Quick update:

12z runs came in continuing a wetter trend for Sunday system.  NAM starting to get within range too and it’s showing some precip in N. Utah.  I think there’s a pretty good chance for snow above 9K feet this weekend!  More info below….

Thursday AM:

Cooler weather has finally arrived.  We’ll warm up as we head into the weekend before a similar front cools us back down again on Sunday.  A chance for even colder air and a bit of high elevation snowfall arrives middle of next week.

The coldest air of the season so far is currently overhead.  Low temps dropped into the 40s in the valleys and 30s in the mountains this morning.  Here is a fun fact: today’s low was only the second below normal low temperature in SLC since June 23.  That means that prior to today, we had seen only 1 day in the past 86 that had a below normal low temperature.  That day was August 2 when we dropped 1 degree below the average low.  That statistic is astounding.

The front Tuesday night mainly brought rain showers and thunderstorms to far northern Utah, not much precipitation behind the front so we didn’t see any snowfall on webcams in Utah.  To our north and east, however, snow did fall in the high elevations.  Here’s a look at what Jackson Hole looked like yesterday morning:



Utah will have another chance or two to see its first snowfall in the next 7 days, details on that in a second.

The one saving grace of this hot summer was that we saw an almost ceaseless monsoonal flow that brought rain and helped keep fire conditions in check.  Almost everywhere in the West saw decent rainfall over the summer.  Here is a total radar estimated precip for the entire summer.  You can see all the rainfall especially in Southern Utah.  We had many storms where the radar was underestimating precip amounts, so I’d guess that actual precipitation was even higher, but it helps give you a general idea…



Utah will warm up over the next few days with high temps back into the 80s on Saturday.  Saturday, however, will be breezy as the next front approaches Utah.  This front looks similar to the last one.  I’d expect there to be a few showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along the front with not much precip behind it.  That means that we probably won’t see snow with this feature (but it is possible).   The more likely candidate for snowfall looks to arrive middle of next week.  Models are still going  back on forth with how to handle this system as it become somewhat cut-off from the flow.  If you have been a regular reader for the last couple years, you know how many headaches we’ve had with cut-off lows.  We’ll just have to wait and see what consensus the models find.  I think at the very least we will see our first dusting of snow next Wednesday or Thursday.

Until then, we’ll keep you informed as always on how the forecast evolves . . .



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