Transitioning to Fall

Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:14 am

Monday AM update: A transition to more typical Autumn weather is still in the cards. We will deal with two cold fronts over the next seven days. Each one will cool us down and give us a slight chance for showers and possibly even a dusting on the highest peaks.

These cold fronts will cool us down on Wednesday and again on Sunday. The troughs are progged to dig down along the West coast before lifting north and weakening as they move inland. Because of this, the chances for us getting some snow in the high elevations isn’t nearly as good as it was looking a few days ago when the models were more progressive with the pattern. Still, expect cooler temps behind the fronts with highs actually dipping below normal at times.

Both the GFS and EC currently show a continuation of the active pattern through the end of September with the troughs digging progressively deeper. If this were to verify, it would give us an even better chance at getting our first snowfall. I’m going to give the models a day or two to get some consistency before I call it a forecast.

Still… While the effects won’t be super obvious, at least at first, we are transitioning to a more active pattern. It’s exciting news for skiers, boarders and snow lovers.


Sunday AM: One more day with a chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms today before we finally dry out. Many areas have seen significant rainfall over the past 5 days or so. A pattern change is taking place that will cool us off and even give us a chance for a dusting of snow over the highest peaks of far northern Utah.

Today the low pressure system responsible for several days of rain across many western states, including Utah and Colorado, is finally starting to exit the area to our east. Drier air has moved into the area, however, don’t be surprised to see one last day of showers and thunderstorms before we dry out completely on Monday.

Monday and Tuesday will be warmer days with high temps above normal again. The first in a series of troughs will begin to impact the Pacific NW. This is all part of a large scale pattern change to a far more Fall-like pattern. It’s very typical of this time of year, however, after the excruciatingly hot summer we had, it’s especially nice to see.

So what does this mean for Utah? Well, it looks like these troughs are going to primarily stay to our north. We will be grazed by cold fronts on both Tuesday night and again Saturday night or Sunday next weekend. Both of these cold fronts will cool us down to normal or slightly below normal temperatures. They will also give us a chance for our first dustings of snow on the highest peaks in far northern Utah. Again, the models have been inconsistent with how deep the troughs dig. Worst case scenario we see just a few clouds and slightly cooler temps. Best case scenario is much colder weather with measurable snowfall above 8K feet.

Lots of question marks as we head toward the end of September. We’ve seen some long range models continuing the progressive patterns and gradually digging the troughs deeper into the west. We’ve also seen some models suggest the opposite with more ridging and an “Indian Summer” developing as we head into October. Time will tell . . .


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