Yesterday went exactly as predicted. A post-frontal band of precip pushed through in the morning and brought a few hours of moderate to heavy valley rain with snow above 7,000 feet. Accumulations of between 2-5″ were reported. Wasn’t able to make it up to the mountain myself–hope the snow was decent.
Today will be similar except with precip developing in the afternoon and a bit more showery and lighter in nature. Due to this factor and the high afternoon sun angle, don’t think we will see much more than an inch or two with today’s disturbance. The next disturbance will move through tomorrow morning and will be equally weak, however another inch or two will be possible in northern Utah.
The strong Low pressure system that we’ve been talking about all week will finally drop into the Great Basin on Sunday night. The models are in general agreement that it will track southeast through Central Nevada into Southern or Central Utah on Monday. The Euro, which was farther south with the track all week, is now actually slight farther north than the latest GFS. The Euro is also much slower with the Low’s movement and would therefore lead to more significant totals. This pattern isn’t optimal for the Wasatch. The mountains of Southern and Central Utah as well as the Uintas are more likely to see significant snowfall.
The counter clockwise rotation of the low as it passes to our south will give us a fair possibility for heavier snowfall along the Wasatch Back, similar to what we saw last week. This is hard to forecast and relies on banding which is almost impossible to predict, so take this as a possibility rather than a forecast.
The overall takeaway is this: The Wasatch will see the best precipitation start late Sunday night into Monday. As the low tracks eastward on Monday, there will be an increasing chance for wrap-around snowfall into Monday night, and it could give us one last good day for the Wasatch Back on Tuesday. Southern Utah mountains and the Uintas should do well on Monday into Monday night. Overall forecast is 6-12+ inches for mountains of S. Utah and Uintas above 8,000 feet. 4-8″ for the Wasatch above 7,000. The storm should start to move out during the day on Tuesday.
Wednesday will be a break before another weak impulse could bring some showers on Thursday. GFS and Euro both still suggest another broad trough toward mid-month. Euro moves it into the area by Sunday the 14th, GFS holds off until the 16th or so. April is trying its best to make up for it’s 2013 predecessors.