Wednesday AM update:
No real changes to yesterday’s thinking… isolated afternoon showers possible on Friday and Saturday with a better chance for valley rain and mountain snow moving in late Sunday and Monday. Still questions about the exact timing/track of the Low.
The area is currently under a dirty ridge, but just enough moisture has streamed into the area in the zonal flow for some cloud cover. Afternoon heating could lead to diurnal convection — aka afternoon showers and maybe even thunderstorms. I expect just isolated showers today with snow levels around 8,000 feet. Tomorrow we should clear out a bit again. Moisture will once again start to move into the area on Friday and Saturday ahead of the approaching cut-off low. This will lead to a slight chance of showers on these days throughout Utah.
The cut-off low will finally move inland on Sunday and Monday bringing more widespread rain to the valleys and high elevation snowfall. As many of you know, cut-off lows are very hard to predict and often follow more southerly tracks, so there isn’t a whole lot of confidence in how much precip we’ll see. But chances are all of Utah will at least get something, although Southern Utah might see the brunt of the storm.
Looking at the long range into the first week or two of April, it looks like a dominate high pressure ridge will park itself in the Gulf of AK. Models are suggesting that we may see undercutting of the ridge with relatively warm, moist systems moving into the west coast. This is a fairly typical Spring pattern and therefore makes sense. However, it’s too early to call it a forecast. For now, all attention will be on the cut-off low over the next 5 days.