Snow on the way

Saturday, March 16, 2013 at 8:41 am

Saturday PM update:

This morning’s post was a bit of a let down for some of you, I know, but trust me, it’s not fun to have to be the bearer of bad news.  It’s always about ten times worse too when the season as a whole has been poor.

I do want to report however, that there have been some good trends in the models today.  12z GFS and Euro were both a bit better for the midweek system than their previous respective runs.  Then, the 18z GFS was slightly better than the 12z… so I still think a decent system Wednesday night – Friday is still very much a possibility.  There will also be a few inches of snow tomorrow to get you in the mood.  So while it could be better, it definitely could be far worse.

Perhaps more importantly, both the Euro and the GFS don’t show nearly as dominant of a ridge developing behind the trough as they did this morning. Instead, they keep a moist northwest flow in place through next weekend with perhaps more storms for the following week.  Clearly, with the fickle nature of the models lately, this shouldn’t be taken as a forecast quite yet, I’m just trying to relay the facts and alleviate the despair I may have caused with this morning’s post.  ;-)   Keep the positive thoughts going!

 

Previous:

 

Snow still expected tomorrow. Today we’ll have increasing clouds with snow beginning tomorrow morning and continuing through about noon. It will start snowing in the Northern Wasatch first and quickly spread south to Cottonwoods/PC by around sunrise.  This is a fast moving storm and accumulations will therefore be limited.  Still think the 3-6″ prediction from yesterday looks good with the possibility for a bit more in places.  The slushy snow we’ve had from the last week of warm temperatures will likely freeze with the cold air behind the front tomorrow, so hopefully we get enough fresh snow to cover the “crust” that may develop.

We then ridge up for Monday and Tuesday before the next system moves in on Wednesday night.  Yesterday, a trend developed that would take the best Pacific moisture and aim it well north of Utah.  The moisture will then be pulled south into the area with the dropping Low, but it won’t be a “direct hit”.  The storm still looks to be at least moderate with good powder days on Thursday and Friday.

For me, there has been a very disappointing trend in the models for the past two days.  48 hours ago, all major global models were showing a train of systems moving off the Pacific and into the area next weekend and beyond.  This is really what Utah needs to try to work our snowpack up to at least somewhere near average.  Unfortunately, all the major models have completely backed away from this idea and instead now build a strong ridge of high pressure into the area.  Not good news.  The GFS does try to break the ridge down again over the last few days of March, but that’s too far out to have any confidence.

So the good news is that we have a storm coming in tomorrow that will bring us at least a few fresh turns and then a stronger system for Wednesday night – Friday that should give us at least one good powder day.  There is some bad news beyond that but there’s also time for the models to change their minds again.  Let’s hope they do.

WSF





50 thoughts on “Snow on the way

      1. jj

        I was thinking if doing the opposite as i have to go to park city either tommorow or monday.

        I was thinking that at park city i would only be able to get some fresh turns the day of the storm whereas at powmow i might be able to get some fresh turns in the day later?

        So park city the day of the storm and powmow day after or opposite?

  1. T

    Wow,You’re going to be talking them down from the bridge today. I don’t think past 5 days regarding weather anyway.

  2. Steve

    This year, it seems the models always show hope and then slowly suck it away. Oh well, it could always be worse.

  3. Anonymous

    WSF, this probably should have come at no surprise the way that this winter has been. This is so frustrating. The winter is now definitely over with no hope of salvaging a decent season. We should all just prepare for a dusting on next week!

    1. wasatchsnowcast

      You’re right that it’s highly unlikely we’ll be able to get anywhere close to normal snowfall. I think we’ll still have a few more good powder days before the season’s over.

      1. Anonymous

        Going forward, a storm cycle in the Wasatch is a 6inch storm followed by three weeks of 60 degree weather. LCC is not even a reliable place to ski anymore!

      2. Anonymous

        It seems like almost every storm this season has been a bust. It’s now almost the third week in March and barely a single snowflake has fallen in LCC. March is supposed to be among the most prolific snow months. It seems like spring came to the Wadatch in January. Now it’s looking like this season will be more pathetic than last season.

        1. wasatchsnowcast

          Yea…aside from that good spell at the end of February, it’s been disappointing since January 1. I’m as bummed as anyone, trust me. Let’s hope we have a nice, wet Spring.

  4. Anonymous

    You have done a great job of reporting the facts, you’re just the messenger! The site is fantasic. That said two guys who have both been in Park City over 40 years said this fall that a bad winter is always followed by another bad winter, and it appears that piece of fokelore forecasting was correct as we have had two subpars in a row. Hopefully, this bodes well for next winter….but I am still not giving up on a strong finish.

      1. Anonymous

        Season is definitely over. I am fed up with hoping it will get better! Tomorrow the models will probably feature ridging and mid-60s next week instead of snow

      2. Anonymous

        I’m a little surprised at the negativity your post generated, and some of it at you….sad to see since you are providing a variation on the theme, usually in a clearer manner than the NWS or the Avie guys and girl. I guess the difference is that their is no “comment” button at the end of the NWS Discussion. As previously indicated, we really appreciate this resource.

    1. James

      Pretty much scott.. its over. A little more snow is probable but we will need to recycle water going forward

  5. Anonymous

    Ya unfortunately whatever we get from here will be a case of “too little too late”. I’m just really concerened about moisture as a whole. My home was almost devastated by one of the fires last summer. I’m pretty nervous about the same thing this summer season. We need moisture of any kind. Preferrably powder snow, but I’ll take anything at this point!

  6. Anonymous

    WSF, NWS does not seem to optimistic about midweek storm. It seems like they ate thinking it will be a brush by system. What are your thoughts?

  7. Steve

    I hate to be a downer, but 36 hours ago, NWS predicted 6-10 inches for Sunday storm. This morning it was down to 3-7 inches. Now it’s 1-3 inches. But the good news is that there will be cold and wind. That should make the slush from today nice and frozen. Perfect. Hope the Wednesday -Thursday storm doesn’t follow the usual looks good, then ok at best and then not good at all. Jeez!. Tough season.

    1. James

      Lol.. steve

      Wats ur prediction for next season?

      U have any theories why utah isnt getting snow anymore

    2. Anonymous

      The not good at all part of the forecast=rain and ice, maybe a flurry. The Wasatch suck!!!!!

  8. Steve

    No theories. WSF is the man. Just observing. Too many incidents of hopes raised by the models and then dashed. .

  9. Anonymous

    Its depressing to see ski resorts in New England getting snow every other day while it seems like Miami beach up in LCC. I don’t think that it will ever snow in Utah again this season!!!!!!!!!! Its sad when forecasts even mention the possibility of getting an inch up in LCC. That pretty much sums up how bad things are right now.

      1. Anonymous

        That may even be unrealistic. The road into LCC will no longer require avalanche control because I honestly think that it will be miracle if a single flake of snow will ever fly in Utah again!!!!! The skiing is just pathetic in Utah right now and its even worse that the skiing in New England is better.

      2. James

        Lol fuck u obama

        Very immature to deny a whole state water just because they voted 3 to 1 for a favorite son

      3. Anonymous

        Agreed James! Things are so bad right now that amazes me that places like Alta and Snowbird used to get as much snow as they did. After this season and last, I would be surprised if skiers would bother traveling to Utah to ski.

  10. Anonymous

    After the last two seasons of continuous disappointment, I am giving up on the Wasatch. While the cascades are low in elevation at least they consistently get snow. Right now in LCC, it seems like its impossible for flake to fly from the sky!!!!

  11. Steve

    Boy, and I thought I was being a downer. Looking at some of the posts, maybe not so much. No snow ever again? Perhaps a little too much gloom and doom. Not a great year, but I suspect there will be more good years. But am having a hard time getting optimistic about this season.

    1. Anonymous

      Steve don’t waste energy trying to be optimistic…The Wasatch are no longer a reliable place to ski. Last two years we waiti and wait for big storms to arrive. They start out with prospects of 2+ feet and then are downgraded to 1-3 inches and then to flurries. West Virginia has seen more snow in March than LCC. This is so pathetic!!!!!!!

    2. Anonymous

      Things are so bad right now that Alta/Snowbird get excited when they receive a trace of snow. So sad!!!!

  12. Anonymous

    Coming to Park City for a week starting the 24th. Ill be happy with WHATEVER is there. Maybe you crybabies need to buy a boat and move to Phoenix. You can play on your skis or board year round and never worry about a forecast to tell you if you can go have fun or not.

    “The wasatch sucks”???.. get a life people

    1. Anonymous

      you guys sound like a bunch of spoiled whinners…geez a bad year or two here and its like F off Wasacth i’m moving! Maybe some of you need another hobby?

  13. Anonymous

    Oh how quickly people forget about 2 winters ago. Law of averages people. For all you talking about leaving/not coming back to UT…thank you.
    Keep up the great work WSF!

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