Saturday PM update:
This morning’s post was a bit of a let down for some of you, I know, but trust me, it’s not fun to have to be the bearer of bad news. It’s always about ten times worse too when the season as a whole has been poor.
I do want to report however, that there have been some good trends in the models today. 12z GFS and Euro were both a bit better for the midweek system than their previous respective runs. Then, the 18z GFS was slightly better than the 12z… so I still think a decent system Wednesday night – Friday is still very much a possibility. There will also be a few inches of snow tomorrow to get you in the mood. So while it could be better, it definitely could be far worse.
Perhaps more importantly, both the Euro and the GFS don’t show nearly as dominant of a ridge developing behind the trough as they did this morning. Instead, they keep a moist northwest flow in place through next weekend with perhaps more storms for the following week. Clearly, with the fickle nature of the models lately, this shouldn’t be taken as a forecast quite yet, I’m just trying to relay the facts and alleviate the despair I may have caused with this morning’s post. ;-) Keep the positive thoughts going!
Snow still expected tomorrow. Today we’ll have increasing clouds with snow beginning tomorrow morning and continuing through about noon. It will start snowing in the Northern Wasatch first and quickly spread south to Cottonwoods/PC by around sunrise. This is a fast moving storm and accumulations will therefore be limited. Still think the 3-6″ prediction from yesterday looks good with the possibility for a bit more in places. The slushy snow we’ve had from the last week of warm temperatures will likely freeze with the cold air behind the front tomorrow, so hopefully we get enough fresh snow to cover the “crust” that may develop.
We then ridge up for Monday and Tuesday before the next system moves in on Wednesday night. Yesterday, a trend developed that would take the best Pacific moisture and aim it well north of Utah. The moisture will then be pulled south into the area with the dropping Low, but it won’t be a “direct hit”. The storm still looks to be at least moderate with good powder days on Thursday and Friday.
For me, there has been a very disappointing trend in the models for the past two days. 48 hours ago, all major global models were showing a train of systems moving off the Pacific and into the area next weekend and beyond. This is really what Utah needs to try to work our snowpack up to at least somewhere near average. Unfortunately, all the major models have completely backed away from this idea and instead now build a strong ridge of high pressure into the area. Not good news. The GFS does try to break the ridge down again over the last few days of March, but that’s too far out to have any confidence.
So the good news is that we have a storm coming in tomorrow that will bring us at least a few fresh turns and then a stronger system for Wednesday night – Friday that should give us at least one good powder day. There is some bad news beyond that but there’s also time for the models to change their minds again. Let’s hope they do.