Everything looks to be falling into place for next week. The best part of the pattern change is still 6-7 days away, but excellent model agreement has got me feeling good.
Ridge will flatten through Saturday. This will allow for more and more clouds to start to work their way back into the area and temps will fall a bit from the near record highs we’ll have today. By Saturday, we’ll even have a chance for a light shower or two as disturbances pass just to our north.
First, weak system on Sunday. This system was looking pretty good in the Euro yesterday and pretty weak in the GFS. The models seem to be finding consensus on a compromise solution that would bring light-to-moderate snow to far northern Utah. Still wouldn’t expect more than 6″, but late Sunday into Monday could serve up at least a few fresh turns.
Next stronger and colder system enters middle to late next week. After a brief ridge of high pressure warms us up on Monday-Wednesday morning. We’ll see the big storm start to approach late Wednesday (if current timing holds). This storm has cold origins but will also be tapping into a fairly significant Pacific moisture tap that could make for a really good snow storm for the high elevations. It’s too early to start talking amounts or even promising a big storm, but just know that it has the potential to be good.
Continued storms . . . ? Still early, but both the GFS and Euro hint at a continued active pattern. This is looking like it could be the type of pattern we haven’t seen at all for most of the last two years–a total breakthrough of the westerlies without any Eastern Pacific ridge inhibiting the storms’ trajectory. The only regret would be that we didn’t get this pattern in January when conditions are prime for big snow.
Again, this is not a forecast for the rest of March as there is plenty of time for us to be disappointed again, but it is good news and worth sharing. I think we’ve gotten just enough people to give up on winter to tip the scales back in our favor.