Warm weather to continue through the end of the week with a potential pattern shift over the weekend….
Yesterday was warm both up on the mountain and in the valleys. Today will be even warmer with the warming trend continuing through at least Friday. We should have a fun week of Spring skiing! Jet stream will be to our north moving into British Columbia and the far northern Rockies. This could send in some high cloud cover from time to time but no real shot for precip this week.
Things start to change a bit in the large scale pattern by the weekend. The Euro drops the jet south, potentially carrying a weak impulse into the area on Friday night/Saturday. The Euro then wants to develop short wave ridging for the beginning of next week before dropping a larger, colder trough into the West. This is 10 days out so confidence in this solution is very low, but it would be a good pattern for us if it were to verify. The GFS, on the other hand, has a completely different solution. It keeps the ridging and warmth in place until Sunday, when it drops a deeper system into the Great Basin. GFS has gone back and forth on the strength of this system. After that system, the GFS has been all over the place with how to handle the pattern, which leads to zero confidence in it.
There are always differences in the models 5+ days away from an event but they generally agree on the overall pattern. In this case, the models are still struggling to find any sort of consensus which makes forecasting extremely difficult. What does appear obvious is that the pattern will get at least a bit more active this weekend, but whether that means just a few showers or a good storm is totally up in the air. For now, it’s just a waiting game to see if we can get some model agreement in the next couple days. In the meantime, hope for the best!