Waiting Game

Monday, March 11, 2013 at 8:29 am

Warm weather to continue through the end of the week with a potential pattern shift over the weekend….

Yesterday was warm both up on the mountain and in the valleys.  Today will be even warmer with the warming trend continuing through at least Friday.  We should have a fun week of Spring skiing! Jet stream will be to our north moving into British Columbia and the far northern Rockies.  This could send in some high cloud cover from time to time but no real shot for precip this week.

Things start to change a bit in the large scale pattern by the weekend.  The Euro drops the jet south, potentially carrying a weak impulse into the area on Friday night/Saturday.  The Euro then wants to develop short wave ridging for the beginning of next week before dropping a larger, colder trough into the West.  This is 10 days out so confidence in this solution is very low, but it would be a good pattern for us if it were to verify.  The GFS, on the other hand, has a completely different solution.  It keeps the ridging and warmth in place until Sunday, when it drops a deeper system into the Great Basin.  GFS has gone back and forth on the strength of this system.  After that system, the GFS has been all over the place with how to handle the pattern, which leads to zero confidence in it.

There are always differences in the models 5+ days away from an event but they generally agree on the overall pattern.  In this case, the models are still struggling to find any sort of consensus which makes forecasting extremely difficult.  What does appear obvious is that the pattern will get at least a bit more active this weekend, but whether that means just a few showers or a good storm is totally up in the air.  For now, it’s just a waiting game to see if we can get some model agreement in the next couple days.  In the meantime, hope for the best!

WSF





7 thoughts on “Waiting Game

  1. Anonymous

    Sounds good to me. I am coming out on next Monday night looking forward to big snows maybe 19 through 21.

  2. Anonymous

    Hi WSF, Just had a look at the 12Z Euro and GFS. I am by no means an expert but they did not look encouraging for next week. Would like to hear your thoughts. Is there still any hope for next week for at least cooler temps to preserve the snowpack. It seems impossible to have any kind of descent snow lately. Its definitely getting frustrating.

    1. wasatchsnowcast

      To me, the GFS looks better in the 12z then it did in this morning’s runs but still not great. GFS ensemble members are all over the place next week, which makes it hard to trust it. The Canadian GEM model looks ok this weekend not bad next week. The Euro is the best looking of the bunch with a weak system on Saturday night and a potentially bigger system middle of next week. The Euro has also been the most consistent. My best guess right now is that we’ll have a small system on Saturday into Saturday night with a good chance at a larger, colder storm middle of next week. Still way too early to call that a forecast, but it’s my gut feeling.

      1. Anonymous

        Go Euro! It’s bound to snow a lot at some point in March and it’s not in the first 15 days. So just do the math and the odds are with us. I like our chances for next week. I missed the 48″ storm last March by one week. So maybe we hit it big this year. I have a real good feeling about Tuesday thru Thursday next week!

  3. Anonymous

    Yup I’m sure you do. I remember the conditions were “4 snow flakes.. Epic” for a few days.. I came a week later “one snowflake” dust on crust. But for an east coast skier “dust on crust” was really good! I can only imagine how good two or three snowflake conditions must be out there.

  4. Steve

    Are the models still all over the place. The GFS lets one impulse in and then everything goes east. Arrrgh!!!!

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