Clear skies and fresh air today with cooler temps. Yesterday’s system did well, all things considered. Snow totals ranged from 3-5″ in the Northern Wasatch to 6-9″ for Park City and the Cottonwoods. Looks like the sheer volume of moisture column was enough to overcome the lack of dynamics. Liquid amounts were fairly high and if this were a colder storm, accumulations would have been well over a foot, but at the same time, if it were a colder storm, it would be unlikely to have as much moisture. Today should be really good as well with plenty of snow up there that is yet to be tracked.
Snow quality will deteriorate tomorrow and Wednesday as high pressure warms us back up and snow turns even wetter during the day before freezing at night. Clouds will be on the increase on Wednesday ahead of the next system.
This system is extremely complicated, so continue to bear with me over the next few days. The first part of the system will eject through the northern half of the Great Basin into Northern Rockies Wednesday night into Thursday. It doesn’t look overly strong, however, some model runs have suggested a stalling frontal boundary over far northern Utah that could create pockets of locally significant precipitation. This isn’t showing up in all models, and even if it were to happen, there’s a good chance it could set up too far north to benefit much of the Wasatch Range. Without the stalling boundary, Wednesday night into Thursday is looking like a light to moderate event at best. If we get it to stall just right, we could see more significant totals. For now, we’ll just have to hope we get lucky.
The southern portion of the storm will then cut-off and drop into Southern California before moving east-northeast through N. Arizona. This will occur Friday-Sunday and will pull copious amounts of moisture into Southern Utah. The Wasatch should get some moisture, but the vast majority will be focused on Southern Utah, Northern Arizona, and the San Juans of Colorado. Maybe a road trip is in the cards?
After this system finally moves out late in the weekend, ridging with nudge its way into the area. The GFS has been struggling deciding whether the ridge will remain over the west coast and push the storm track to our east or if it will retrograde enough to drop systems into the area. The Euro has been much more consistent in dropping a cold trough into the area around the 12th or 13th of March. The Euro is often a more trustworthy model in the 5-10 day range. It has also been more consistent over the past few days and has the support of the GEM model. Let’s hope the Euro has a better handle on the situation.
Looking at the teleconnections, the main one to grab my interest is the PNA, which can often strongly influence our WX patterns. It has been, for the most part, in a positive state since the middle of December but is forecasted to finally turn negative by mid-month.
I’m hoping this will help to shift the pattern. If you remember, December was pretty good to us . . .