Some good signs out there for next week. First, all the sensors are now up to date and we can look at the snowpack numbers throughout the Wasatch. Generally speaking, the Cottonwoods are now sitting at 80% of normal. On the other side of the hill in PC, they are around 75% of normal. The Northern Wasatch is averaging 71% of normal. Southern Utah is closest of all to normal with about 90% on average. Not great, but better than last year and still close enough for us to make up the difference. These numbers are also fairly close to where we stood at the end of January, so for the month of February, we held serve.
So let’s look at the forecast, high pressure is fighting a weak system that is going to pass to our north tonight and tomorrow. It should spread some cloud cover into the area this afternoon with a slight chance of high elevations snow showers tonight and tomorrow. The farther north the location, the better chance you’ll have to see a snow shower, but don’t expect any accumulations. High pressure will then give us a nice warm Saturday with temps on the mountain edging into the 40s. Valleys will be inverted, but may still make it close to 50.
On Sunday, our next chance for accumulating snow moves in. The system is timing a little faster this morning, so snow may start as early as Sunday morning and continue into Sunday night. Precip will start as rain in the valleys before changing to snow late in the event. It’s a little early to talk exact amounts, but right now it looks like its a moderate storm that is taking its best energy north of Utah, so I don’t expect too much. Perhaps somewhere between 3-8″ by Monday morning above 7K feet.
Then we’ll have a few days of break before another system approaches for later next week (Thursday/Friday). This system is looking promising but it’s a long way out and I still have some concerns with it splitting as it moves into the Great Basin. However, it’s worth noting that a couple model runs have suggested a significant, slow-moving storm with a decent subtropical moisture tap.
I’ve been getting a lot of questions lately about whether or not there will be enough coverage for skiing for those of you making trips to the Wasatch later this month. Don’t worry, there will still be plenty of coverage. Luckily, a bad year for Utah is still a good year for a lot of other places and there is plenty of coverage at local resorts. We are just spoiled and like to complain. 🙂