After seeing a few more model runs, I’m feeling a bit better. 12z Euro trended farther north with the track of the low for the Tuesday night-Thursday system. 18z GFS still tracks it over S. Utah but is at least a bit farther north than earlier model runs. Other good news is that both Euro and GFS are coming into better alignment for later next week and they continue to bring cold systems into the Great Basin.
From the AM:
Not too much has changed since yesterday in the going forecast. Generally speaking, we should be high and dry today through tomorrow. Sunday we’ll have another system drop down the backside of the ridge and clip Northern Utah. Good news with this is that while it doesn’t have a lot of moisture, it does have a nice, well-defined front that will help scour out any inversion that might be developing in the valleys. At best, we’ll see a few inches from this system, primarily north of I-80. Most of the snow should fall during the day on Sunday. Monday will be a bit of a break in the action as the area braces for a stronger system.
This next system is looking almost identical to the system we had last weekend. It’s going to drop down the west coast and then slowly work its way into Utah late on Tuesday. Like I mentioned yesterday, my big fear is that it will drop too far south to give us good snow. Latest runs of the GFS and Euro didn’t do much to alleviate this fear either. If you are a regular reader, then you might recall this was the exact same fear I had before last week’s system. No matter where the Low ends up tracking, it will pull reinforcing waves of moisture into the area behind it in a northwest flow. A wise man learns from his mistakes — so I’m approaching this system with a lot of caution. Like the last system, this is a complex, long-duration snow storm that has potential to be very effective. But like the last one, I feel it has the potential to under perform a bit.
I still think that at worst we’ll end up with accumulations in the moderate (8-14″) range between Tuesday night and Thursday for the Wasatch. But I am not sure I’m willing to call this a “significant” system quite yet.
Despite my misgivings, I want to assure you that we are at the very least headed in the right direction. The storm will provide all of Utah with beneficial snowfall. After this system wraps up on Thursday, we should remain in an active northwest flow that will continue to drop systems into the area. The exact strength and timing of these systems is extremely difficult to nail down at this point. But overall I expect us to start making up ground on the overall snowpack numbers and I think several powder days will be on tap over the next two weeks or so.
Stay tuned . . .