Winter: Part Deux

Thursday, February 14, 2013 at 7:26 am

The first weak system is passing through the area bringing areas of mostly light snow. Several resorts have seen an inch or two and have a chance to see another inch to through midday. Nothing significant, but enough to freshen things up a bit. Another very weak wave will move through tomorrow morning that should bring more clouds and possibly a snow shower or two. High pressure builds in again for late Friday through Saturday before another weak disturbance drops down on Sunday afternoon into Northern Utah. Still some questions with this system but at best it will only bring a few inches to the high elevations – so nothing to write home about.

Attention then turns to the post-President’s Day pattern shift that I’ve been talking about for what seems like forever. On Tuesday we’ll have a system drop down the West Coast and start to move inland into the Great Basin. It is relatively slow moving, cold, and fairly strong, so it has the potential to bring good snow to most of the West. The one caveat is that I’m afraid it might drop too far west and then south and bring the best snow and dynamics to Southern Utah. GFS suggests this as a possibility, while the Euro keeps it farther north. Either way, we will get snow, but it might be the difference between moderate and significant amounts. Details will, as always, work themselves out as we get closer to the event. Right now, I’d expect Wednesday and possibly Thursday of next week to have some fresh powder.

After that system, both the GFS are suggesting we’ll have a cut-off low that will drop down off the west coast and most likely eject inland to our south late next week. Then, both models suggest another, stronger trough for about the 24th of February. Of course, this is all speculation this far out. But the screaming message is that we have a very active pattern developing with at least chances for snow every couple days. And as the ridge continues to retrograde farther into the Pacific, the storm door will only open wider as we head toward the end of the month.


P.S. MJO is now racing through Phase 2 and forecasted to continue its rapid propagation through Phase 3… Take your time old buddy.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized on by .
  • Rebecca

    You called it first – my ultimate weather guru!

  • webrob29

    Great Forecast! Thinking of heading back out to Utah 1 more time this winter. Based on the current models would you recommend the last week in February or the 1st full week in March to plan a trip? Thanks again for your great forecasts!

    • Right now I only have a very faint picture of the last week of February and it looks like it will remain active. Still too early to really know anything about the first week of March, if you can afford to wait another 5 or 6 days, I will at least have a clearer picture of the last week of Feb.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the great update this morning. Very good news!!!! However, what are the odds that Alta/Snowbird will not see any significant snows from this upcoming active pattern? Thanks in advance for any insight.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the great update WSF!! Good news. However, what are the odds that Alta/Snowbird will not see any significant snow from this upcoming storm cycle? Thanks in advance for any insight!

    • I think there is a very good chance of at least moderate snow Tuesday-Thursday of next week and the overall pattern is heading in the right direction so I wouldn’t be surprised to see more significant snow before the end of the month. All ski areas should do well.