Winding down . . .

Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 7:18 am

Snow showers still exist this morning in parts of Utah but they are few and far between and generally very light. Last night’s piece of energy produced exactly what we were expecting in terms of amounts. The Cottonwoods are reporting 6-7″ of fresh snow for storm totals of just about a foot. Park City resorts are reporting 4-5″ which puts them at about 8″ for storm totals. Powder Mountain did well yesterday and is now level with the Cottonwoods and Sundance for storm total snowfall.

Today we will see a last, weak reinforcing shot of energy fire up additional snow showers this afternoon. I don’t expect more than a quick couple of inches. It looks like we are going to finish about smack dab in the middle of our 10-20″ original snowfall forecast in the Cottonwoods and at the low end of it elsewhere. So not a great storm but definitely not a total dud either.

Looking to the future, we’ll have a ridge set up over the West Coast again this week. We’ll see a return to at least weak inversion conditions. There is a backdoor system timing for about Wednesday night and Thursday that could keep the inversions from getting too bad and might bring us some light snow. President’s Day weekend looks dry at this time with another backdoor system possible Monday or Tuesday of next week. Beyond President’s Day, the ridge retrogrades out into the Pacific, which theoretically would open the door for some storms in Utah. However, at this time, both major long-range operational models (GFS and Euro) split the systems as they reach the coast. This is a discouraging sign but it’s also 10+ days away so we have to take it with a few pounds of salt. MJO is strengthening again! And should be on the move toward Phase 2 and 3 over the next few days. Most of the weather world is waiting for the effects to start showing up in the operational models, including myself.

As for snowpack, we’ll let this storm finish up today, then take a look at the numbers tomorrow and see where we stand compared to normal. Hint: it’s not a pretty picture.

WSF





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  • Anonymous

    Hello, thanks for the great update this morning! Too bad the snow total were not at the upper end of the forecast range. I am getting a bit nervous as I am supposed to head out to LCC in mid march and am wondering if there will still be some reasonable skiing by then (i.e., at least good coverage on the slopes). Any insight would be great. Thanks!

  • scotchipman

    Even in the worst years there is still good coverage in March so don’t worry. This year the snow pack is running about 85% of normal which is not that bad. Go to ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/snow/update/ut.txt for the current snow pack numbers.

    • Anonymous

      Thanks so much Scott. I appreciate it! I know it still too early to tell but is there hope for some good sized storms by the end of Feb-early March?

      • I am still of the opinion that we are in for a pattern change by the end of February that will bring us more significant and more frequent snowfall. Stay tuned and we will keep you updated. WSF

  • Anonymous

    Thanks so much Scott. I appreciate it! I know it still too early to tell but is there hope for some good sized storms by the end of Feb-early March?

    • scotchipman

      Yes there is hope. March is my favorite time to ski in Utah since there is always good coverage and usually frequent storms but every year is different so it will take a little luck.