Riddles in the Dark

Tuesday, February 5, 2013 at 7:41 am

Still a lot of questions regarding the system that will move into the area on Friday through the weekend. High confidence that we will get at least light snow amounts, but a lot of questions as to whether we will get deep pow or not. If the low tracks over central or northern Utah, I suspect we’ll see some pretty decent snows. However, if the low drops too far south as several model runs have suggested, the Wasatch will only get a few inches whereas the mountains of S. Utah will get hammered. Stay tuned for the next couple days and we’ll let you know if you should stay here, or take a road trip down to Eagle Point/Brian Head for your powder fix. The good news is that it will blow out the inversions for sure, in fact, we might have a significant downslope wind event if the low passes just to our south.

Next week we look like we’ll be on the east side of a ridge with cold air and weak impulses dropping down the backside. Not a super snowy pattern but should be cool and keep the fresh snow we do get in good shape.

The MJO is now in Phase 1! I’d expect us to feel the effects start to show up in the models any time now. And sure enough, the latest GFS model runs have been showing significant troughing along the West Coast after mid-month. Of course, let’s allow for a few more days before we start rejoicing, but at this point I’m optimistic that a pattern change will take place during the third week of February (15th-21st). ┬áThe CFSv2 is showing above normal precip anomalies along the west coast by week 4 which goes along well with the theory of a major pattern change by the end of the month.

week4

All in all, we’ve got a chance for a decent storm Friday through this weekend, then perhaps we will be on the way to a pattern change — so there are reasons to be optimistic.

WSF

P.S. I’ve been asked many, many times if I know of a place to get discount lift tickets. So I figured I would put a link to Liftopia on the site. If you click the “Discount Lift Tickets” tab at the top of the site, you can access Liftopia and find some decent deals on lift ticket packages.





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