As expected, warm advection precip is filling in to Northern Utah once again. Most of the Wasatch front is seeing at least light snowfall with heavier pockets embedded. Live streaming Solitude webcams indicated snow has picked up again in the Cottonwoods at 6 AM. http://skisolitude.com/mountain/web_cam.php I’d expect 3-6″ in the Cottonwoods today with possibly more at the bases if it’s anything like yesterday. Snowbasin is getting hit again with even more snow so it will be deep again up there today. Park city will likely only see a few inches today as it will be a similar scenario to yesterday, although radar trends indicate it could be spilling over there a bit more today. Precip will weaken tonight and be gone by tomorrow for hopefully a bluebird day!
The trend in the long-term over the last few days in both the Euro and the GFS was to dry us out for at least the next five days.. Both models have been showing a system moving in between Wednesday and Friday of next week. The GFS tries to draw up a lot of warmer air and moisture from the tropics ahead of the trough. This would mean a potential for a lot of precipitation but snow levels would be an issue with all the warm air. Euro is weaker and colder right now with the same feature. Still lots of questions regarding this system but at least it looks like it won’t be nearly as prolonged of a break from the action as we have been seeing in January. Looking at the weekend of the 9th and 10th and beyond, there is almost zero confidence as of now — GFS’s latest idea would bring systems into the west coast on a fairly regular basis but I’m not buying that quite yet.
MJO stalled out a bit in Phase 7 but looks like it might be on the move again. Once it gets into Phase 8 and especially Phases 1,2, and 3… good things generally happen for Utah weather. Especially in an ENSO neutral year like this one. You’ve heard me talk a lot about the MJO, so here is a great article explaining it and its correlation to good things in Utah!
If you don’t want to read the article and would rather just look at a picture, here is are effects of each phase on precip anomalies in the western U.S. (notice the good things for phases 1,2, and 3?) :
Let’s hope we can get it to phases 1,2, and 3 . . . as I believe it would make for a stellar late Feb and March.
Also, CFSv2 is showing the first above average precip anomalies for week 2 for the first time since before Christmas. This is a good sign for later next week.