Fresh Snow! With more on the way!

Monday, January 28, 2013 at 6:34 am

Monday PM update:

Warm advection precip associated with the next disturbance is already entering the northwest corner of Utah at 5 PM, this should arrive by late this evening along the Wasatch front and pick up in intensity over night. NWS has hoisted Winter Storm Warnings for all of Northern Utah tonight and tomorrow. I expect another 6-12″ for the high elevations with more possible in the Cottonwoods and other areas favored by westerly flow. Orientation is a little different with this disturbance than the last so NWS has highlighted northern Utah county and Southern Salt Lake County as being likely to see the most valley snowfall. This seems to make sense. Valleys should see 3-6″ with more in places. The timing of this system will make tomorrow morning’s commute difficult so stay home if you can. Getting up to the ski areas might be tricky too — wouldn’t be surprised to see some Avalanche control closures in the morning for awhile.

Another, weaker disturbance on Wednesday will add several more inches in the mountains and a bit more in the valleys as well. Then we’ll have a break this weekend. More in the AM….

I expect plenty more whoops and hollers between faceshots tomorrow! WSF


Quick summary of yesterday’s system before I take a look ahead. Early snow reports from resorts starting to come in — generally at 7-9″ in Park City, a foot or more in the Cottonwoods, and 8-14″ for resorts of the Northern Wasatch. Pretty close to my forecasted amounts so I’m satisfied.

Today we will have a few light off and on snow showers in the mountains. The next disturbance mentioned in previous discussions will move in late tonight. This is a fairly potent wave and could really add to totals. Furthermore, it will be of the light and fluffy variety for which Utah is famous. Snow should become heavy by tomorrow morning so getting up to the resorts could be tricky, but once you do, expect snow throughout the day. I think another 6-12″ is possible from this system from tonight through Tuesday night with up to 16″ possible in favorable locations like the Cottonwoods.

There will be another weaker wave moving in on Wednesday into Wednesday night that could further add to our totals. Still some questions about this third disturbance, but we think that another 3-6″ is possible. We’ll have to take a closer look at it tomorrow.
Winter Storm Warnings are in effect from tonight through Thursday morning so the NWS is fairly confident in a heavy, prolonged event. My gut feeling is that we’ll see another 9-18″ in the Wasatch with up to 2 feet in favored areas like the Cottonwoods through Thursday.

Today, Tomorrow, Wednesday, and Thursday should all be awesome! Whoop Whoop!

Quick look at the long range shows ridging (and maybe some weak inversions) developing this weekend. GFS tries to pull moisture up into the area from the south on Superbowl Sunday but I’m not buying it just yet… GFS and Euro both show a trough approaching the area middle of next week ( about Feb 6th ). More on the outlook once the short term quiets down.


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  • Steve

    Thanks for making it snow.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks WSF – noticed that NWS just dropped their Wed forecast totals by A LOT. Went from 2-4 (Wed day) + 6-10 (Wed night) night, down to 1-2 (Wed day) + 2-4 (Wed night). That was a bit of a surprise. So that’s now seen as a weaker system than originally thought? Quite an abrupt change, I’ve been watching it all day.

    • Hmmm… not surprised. I wasn’t sure what they were seeing as it looked significantly weaker to me than the wave tonight/tomorrow. If you notice, this morning I forecasted 3-6″.

  • Anonymous

    Yep – no doubt you were correct. Gun to head, on top of 15″ at Alta yesterday, can they reasonably get another 20″ between tonight and Wed night?

    • I think there’s a good chance for 8-16″ for Alta tonight through tomorrow. With 3-6″ on top of that on Wed-Wed night… so it’s possible!