Monday AM update:
Everything still on track with first strong wave starting to move rain and high elevation snow into the area this afternoon and this evening. Reports to both our north and west this morning show lots of snow falling already. Lake Tahoe is currently being pounded with reports of nearly a foot of snow already having fallen since midnight last night at the higher elevation around the lake. Likely that the highest elevations of the Sierra will see 3+ feet of snow before all is said and done. Don’t see quite that much for the Wasatch but still respectable amounts will fall here too. Everything said below in last night’s discussion is still applicable if you’re looking for timing and accumulation details. Otherwise, enjoy the storm!
Everything is set and ready to go. Models continue to be in very good agreement for the most part through Thursday. Utah is primed for its first winter like pattern.
Looking at all the charts tonight I’m feeling comfortable with our forecast which went back and forth on the strength of these systems all last week but settled in on a solution on Friday and for the most part we’ve stayed on that solution since. Today we saw a preliminary front working its way slowly through the area. A few light showers fired up in place in Northern Utah, but the warm temps have kept snow levels extremely high. Clouds and southwest flow will keep temps warm tonight too with lows struggling to drop below 50 in lower valleys. Tomorrow we’ll have the first of the stronger waves of precipitation approach the area. All models now don’t show the bulk of the precip arriving until Monday night, but showers will still be possible all day with warm, moist flow over the area. Tuesday morning, snow levels will start to finally lower below 8,000 feet, possibly falling as low as benches and even valley floors by Tuesday evening. Snow will start accumulating in the mountains on Tuesday and it should snow off and on through Thursday as reinforcing shots of energy rotate into the region.
Wednesday will be colder as the cold pool of the parent Low works its way into the Wasatch. We should see snow levels fall all the way to valley floors according to the 12z run of the NAM. Grassy surfaces may see light accumulations but warm pavement temps should keep road accumulations minimal.
By Thursday night, we’ll start to dry out as a ridge builds in for next weekend, though temps should remain cool.
Right now we’re still thinking 8-16″ total above 8,000 ft for Monday-Thursday. Mountain valleys will probably see 4-8″. Benches of Wasatch could see a couple inches later in the event.