Quiet September, at least for now

Wednesday, September 12, 2012 at 12:34 pm

Low pressure system still on track to affect the area early next week.  Chance for showers and even some very high elevation snowflakes for the Wasatch starting on Monday. Temperatures will cool to seasonal levels.    Still a lot of uncertainty with the exact track of this low, as GFS and EC each portray slightly different solutions.   We’ll be updating more frequently from now on as the Pacific is showing further signs of transitioning to a more winter-like pattern.

Previous . . . .

Update, Sunday, Sept 16:

Sunday’s 12z run of the GFS showing a cut-off low meandering across the Great Basin late next weekend.  Not an especially strong or cold system but if this verifies, Utah will likely see an increase in moisture and chance for showers/thunderstorms on Sunday (Sept. 23) and perhaps cooler with showers on Monday (9/24).  Again, not too much in the way of cold air associated with this Low so even if everything pans out, I would doubt we’d see any snow except for the highest peaks.  Still, it’s an interesting feature to keep an eye on and see if future model runs continue with this idea.


Not going to look too far ahead with this post, everything I’ve already said about the upcoming winter hasn’t changed and can be found here.  Right now we are going to just focus on the short term and these updates will become more frequent as the Pacific continues to become more active with a strengthening jet stream.  System that passed through the area on Monday and Tuesday brought cool air and a few showers to Northern Utah but most of the moisture stayed confined to the southern half of the state.  What else is new? This morning (Wednesday) was one of the coolest we’ve seen since early June with low temps in the SLC area dropping into the upper 40’s with 30’s in the mountains.  These cool temps will help to start the autumn colors in the next couple weeks.

Quiet weather will dominate the area for at least the next 5-7 days with high temps still in the 80s for the valleys with 70s in the mountains.  A few model runs have been showing a Low pressure system affecting the area early next week.  At this time, I’m not seeing anything more than a few clouds, light breezes and slight cooling from this system.  If it digs far enough south and stays together enough, there is a possibility of a shower or two out of it.  Beyond that, long range models are still showing nothing but quiet, calm weather through the end of the month.  This time of year we see large-scale patterns starting to change so models often have trouble dealing with such changes more than 5 days out.  So while I say it looks quiet now, who knows if it will stay that way.  Last year after all we were surprised by an early season snow storm.  Here’s an image of Snowbird the first week of October last year:

Snowbird, October 6, 2011

So early snowstorms do happen but obviously they are not a good indicator of what lies ahead in winter–just look how last year turned out after this early snow.  It’s just nice to have a bit of a teaser to put us in the mood.

Stay tuned… The first snowfall is surely not too far off for the high country.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized on by .
  • should we expect to see frequent updates anytime soon or are we still a major pattern change away? i ask because i need advance notice to dial down my responsibilities at work so i have time to click “refresh” every 13 seconds until next summer

    • Haha! Brian, I would love to update more frequently but unfortunately there hasn’t been much to update. Going to try to post some type of update at least every other day from now on as it’s looking like things are picking up in the weather world.