Saturday AM update:
Not much change in the forecast. Warm temps will continue to dominate Utah weather for the next couple days. Sunday night, low pressure approaches from the southwest and we’ll see showers developing early Monday and continuing through the day. Snow levels will start above 7,000 ft and drop down to 5,000 feet or lower by Monday evening. Not much moisture or dynamics going for this system and the high water content of the snow will probably only allow for a few inches of snow. It’s not much but it will soften up the hardpack at least temporarily. Another system looks to pass mostly to our north on Thursday with a third and possibly colder and stronger system approaching for next weekend. We’ll keep an eye on that one for you.
So we’ve done alright in March so far and right now Wasatch snowpack numbers are at about 75% of normal on average. Not great, but manageable. It was looking in January like we would be lucky to get 50% of normal, but nature has attempted to balance itself out.
Looking ahead, we have this low currently dropping down the Pacific coast that will stall offshore for a couple days before ejecting inland and tracking northeast across the Great Basin. Precipitation should begin in Northern Utah during the day on Monday. Not a particularly strong system and a lot of questions still remain about the exact track of the system (tracks of cutoff lows like this are notoriously difficult to forecast). But the potential is there for 3-6″ of snow in the Wasatch on Monday. Until then the story will be warm temperatures for this weekend.
Spring is when models begin to struggle with the pattern beyond 5 days as we slowly transition toward summer. Looking at a combination of teleconnection factors and long-range models. I expect we may see a couple more light to possibly moderate systems before April 1st. Right now, the first week or so of April looks like we may be under a strong ridge of high pressure. Beyond that is pure guesswork so I won’t even attempt to forecast weeks 2-4 of April.
Bring the grill, bring some brews, bring some sunscreen and enjoy the spring skiing up there for the next few days! But don’t put away the powder skis yet, Utah has a history of some pretty legit spring snow storms.