Monday AM update:
Every thing is still on track for the storm moving in tonight/tomorrow. Forecast totals all still look good. Snow will spread in from the southwest this evening. Tomorrow should be a great ski day at all resorts with fresh powder turns for all.
Main update is to say that the system on Wednesday Night – Friday is looking a bit better today on all models. Yesterday we mentioned some possible snow totals for that system, looks like now we will see more snow than that… Putting everything together I’d expect the following totals.
- Cottonwoods, 8-16″
- Park City resorts, 4-10″
- SLC benches, 2-6″
- SLC valley floor, 1-3″
- Cottonwoods, 6-12+”
- Park City, 4-8+”
- SLC valley, 1-4″
A system is currently splitting off the California coast and the southern portion will slowly meander across the Sierra and the Great Basin tonight into tomorrow morning. As it does this, it should strengthen, spreading precip into the southern half of the state tomorrow afternoon and into the SLC area by early evening. System isn’t the most organized one we’ve ever seen, but it will have good enough dynamics, moisture and cold air to bring at least some snow to all elevations. Only fear is that the system will track a little bit too far south for SLC and therefore will limit precip for the Cottonwoods and Park City. Because of that going to go a little conservative on the precip estimates. NWS is calling for 10-18″ in the Cottonwoods but I’m not so convinced. I’m going to say 8-14″, with 4-8″ in Park City. And even less snow for Snowbasin and PowMow due to their northerly location. Salt Lake Valley could get 1-3″ with 3-6″ on the high benches.
Wednesday will be a break day before another system moves into the area on Thursday. This storm is more familiar to us this winter as it is diving in from the northwest. Doesn’t look too impressive as of now on most models (3-6″ in high elevations)… GFS continues to trend a bit stronger though with snows in the 5-10″ range…. think that is unlikely at this point but we are due for some good luck so who knows.
Looks like we’ll clear up and ridge up for a warmer and sunnier weekend. Questions remain as to how long the dry weather will last… waiting to see what the MJO does before I speculate. Currently it’s still stuck in a weak Phase 2 and therefore the PNA remains negative…. hoping it will start moving again. We shall see in the coming days.
Until then, enjoy the fresh snow, even if it isn’t the huge dumps I know you all are dying for.