Friday AM update:
All global models have been consistent in trending bulk of precip and best dynamics north of the area over the last couple days for the Saturday/Saturday night system. Definitely a bummer as this was showing potential to be a good storm a few days ago but now it looks like 3-6″ is all we’ll get in the Cottonwoods with 2-4″ in Park City. Near the Idaho border there may be pockets of greater than 6″. If the trough manages to dig a bit deeper than its currently progged, we may have to bump up these forecasts a bit but right now that is looking unlikely.
The good news, however, is that a system on Monday/monday night is looking a bit better as it does look to dig a bit deeper with even better dynamics… Decent snow accumulations looking more likely.
Another system looks to move in late Wednesday into Thursday but it again may pass too far to our north to give us significant snow, we’ll have to wait and see how the models handle that feature.
Overall, we’ve been waiting for the East Pacific ridge to retrograde farther out into the pacific and allow systems to come in with more moisture and more depth. We expected this to happen as the MJO moved through phase 2 toward phase 3, which in turn would send the PNA negative and allow for west coast troughing. Unfortunately, the MJO has been stalling out and therefore the forecast for the PNA going negative has been delayed and retrogression is taking longer than expected…. This season will live in infamy as the most stubborn patterns ever witnessed. Still expect this retrogression, but it may not happen until we are few days deep into the month of March. Stay tuned….
More details tonight but wanted to mention that we have a chance for moderate accumulations in the Wasatch every couple days through at least the middle of next week. Decent accumulations overnight but snow is likely fairly wind-packed up there and avalanche risks are high everywhere as the snow is sitting on a “sheet of ice”. Be careful out there!
Next system will roll in Saturday afternoon and bring accumulations through Saturday night before tapering off on Sunday… best guess right now is 6-12″ in the Wasatch with potential for a bit more if things come together right. Another system looks to make a glancing blow on Monday with another system coming in next Wednesday or Thursday. While none of these systems look “major”, the frequency of the systems will allow for significant overall accumulations.
Stoke level is high for a good month of March!