There comes a time where you just have to give up and accept we are in a drought year. So far this season, I’ve tried to be the eternal optimist and look for good signs out there when making forecasts. But perhaps it’s just time for us to accept that this year isn’t last year, and when there’s a record high amount of snowfall, there can just as easily be a record low. With that being said, should we all just pack up our skis and boards and sport flip flops from now on? I don’t think so. There’s still a chance, and a rather good chance, that the law of averages will finally work its way in our favor and we’ll get some decent storms before summer returns. And there are theories bouncing around that March and April may be quite wet for Northern Utah.
At the beginning of the month I figured that the MJO would affect our weather starting around mid-month and we’d develop a stormy pattern. The MJO is now in Phase 7, which should mean that in the next 7-10 days it will start to have an affect on the pattern in the Eastern Pacific. Unfortunately, models aren’t picking up on the undercutting moisture that usually is associated with Phase 7 MJO. It doesn’t look like it’s much of a possibility at this time either as this ridge is just too strong and the jet stream too weak to undercut in the foreseeable future. This week the ridge will retrograde westward a bit and allow a weak system to enter the area on Wednesday night for a possible quick couple inches in the mountains. Nothing to write home about. However, there is a slightly more potent wave that SOME models have shown for the latter half of the weekend that could put down a bit more snow. Right now… I’m hoping that the ridge will continue to retrograde and open the storm door as we head into the second half of the month. But right now I’m not optimistic that this will happen until the end of the month because most models want to just rebuild the ridge directly over us again later next week.
The good thing about weather is that forecasts aren’t all that reliable beyond 5-7 days. Which means that a lot can change in a hurry and I may be wrong about the ridge rebuilding next week. Who knows? Maybe the storm door will continue to swing open.