Saturday PM update, 4 PM:
Snow is now falling at all elevations. Just when we feel totally down on our luck with the high snow levels of the last system, we get a storm that comes in colder than expected with tons of snow… looks like my 16-24″ prediction for the Cottonwoods was too low as we are already approaching the lower ends of that range and its going to snow most of the night. Expect the totals to be in the area of 24-36″ by the time all is said and done tomorrow morning in BCC and LCC. Park City resorts won’t do too bad either with 1-2 feet. Monday system still showing a split so don’t expect much out of that. We will dry out for mid-late work week at least with questions beyond that.
Tomorrow will be absolutely epic with light, fluffy snow on top of a nice, wet base.
Previous Quick update: Storm rolling in with snow starting to fall above 8K feet in the Wasatch. Everything looking good and still expecting 16-24″ in the Cottonwoods, 10-18″ for Park City resorts, 3-6″ for Mountain valleys once the rain changes to snow, and 2-4″ for the benches once rain changes to snow, and trace-2″ on the SLC valley floor. Monday system was always going to split but is now looking like totally shearing apart. Don’t expect much more than 3-6″ from it now.
The brunt of this first wave of moisture stayed to the north of SLC for the most part. In doing so, it gave Cottonwood and Park City resorts higher snow levels and therefore denser snow. With the majority of moisture hitting to the North. PowMow picked up 30″ of new snowfall over the last two days and Snowbasin wasn’t far behind. Whereas Cottonwood resorts saw about 16-22″ and Park City resorts didn’t even get 10″.
We are now in between systems, with another strong system moving in late tonight into Saturday morning. This system looks like it will focus its energy a little farther south than the previous system. However snow levels will still be an issue before the front crashes through tomorrow afternoon. We expect the rain/snow line to hover around 8,000 ft tonight and perhaps peak close to 9,000 ft tomorrow before it crashes down to lower valley floors in the post frontal airmass. Snow should taper off tomorrow evening in the valleys fairly quickly but the cold air and good orographic lift should keep snow going in the mountains into Sunday morning. Above 8,000 feet we should see about 12-24″ (with locally higher amounts) of snow in the Cottonwoods. First half of this snow will be very wet but the top layers should be pretty dry and fluffy for those of you looking for powder on Sunday morning. Tomorrow will be a good day for Gore-tex in the wet snow (or rain).
Sunday afternoon through Monday morning should be another break before a colder but weaker system adds another 3-6″ of snow Monday /night. Tuesday could be a great powder day. After Tuesday the area will clear out with the storm track shifting north for at least three or four days. A good chance for ski areas to get the entire mountain open.
If you add together the 16-22″ inches the Cottonwoods received already, plus 12-24 tomorrow/tomorrow night, and 3-6″ Monday/ night, we should have a storm cycle total of about 32-46″…. maybe not as great as it could have been, but still not bad.
Looking way ahead, most of the fantasy charts are speculating that the first week of February could be relatively dry before a return to snowy weather during the second week of February. These fantasy forecasts are far from perfect but it’s fun to look at them nonetheless.
Stay tuned… Happy Shredding!