All I want for Christmas is . . . (Sunday AM Update)

Saturday, December 10, 2011 at 12:45 pm

Sunday update:

Forecast hasn’t changed much . . . It appears Tuesday’s cut-off low will, indeed, pass too far to our south to give the Wasatch any real shot at snow.  Thursday’s system has been trending farther west which would bring more snow to the Sierra Nevada (who desperately need it) but less for us here in Northern Utah.  Beyond this late week system, models really have no idea what to make of our WX.  Looking at what is going on in the big picture (worldwide), I would make an educated guess that we would see weak systems every 4 or 5 days until New Year’s when I think we stand a chance to really rev up winter.  Something to keep an eye on….

Previous discussion:

I had a great day of skiing a few laps this morning and some great tacos from Lone Star.  Helps to dull the frustrations of forecasting right now.  In the last couple weeks I’ve been trying to give everybody something to be optimistic about by sharing with you any and all chances for snow I see.  However it’s become increasingly hard to be optimistic as X-mas approaches with so little snow still.

Previous forecast for a cut-off low moving into the desert SW on Tuesday still looks good.  This low may bring some more snow to Southern Utah/Arizona but will do little for us up north besides provide a slight chance of snow showers.  Low will move east on Wednesday with models struggling to agree beyond that.  Over the last few runs, the GFS has been more favorable for snow in Utah (as shown in yesterday’s graphic).  However, it appears now that the GFS is coming more in line with the GEM and EC of keeping the low farther west and perhaps cutting it off as well down the coast.  Think it’s a safe bet to say that Northern Utah will see at least a little snow next Thursday/Friday but it’s looking unlikely to be anything significant.  I’ve got the split flow bluuuueeesss!

After that, I have absolutely zero confidence in the models.  I usually look at MJO and/or PNA patterns for hints but neither of those really lead me toward any particular solution right now.  There comes a time when all we can do is wait and hope. I would say there is no better time than the present for that.  Pray for snow!

I would like to thank all of you who’ve shared WSF on your Facebook or Twitter or blog or whatever!  The only way Wasatch Snow Forecast gains exposure is through word of mouth and we appreciate you spreading that word.  Hopefully I’ll have a chance to repay you by hooking you up with awesome snow forecasts once this season finally revs up.

Stay tuned…

…The Powder Hound…

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  • dantedon

    This site is great! Provides detailed analysis from a real, local viewpoint. Love your shout-out to Lone Star, too. Been there once.

    A TV exec mentioned to me that he checks WasatchSnowForecast because he finds the info here to be one of the best weather discussions in all the West. Count me in as one of the many snow related business operators praying for snow! Keep it up, Powder Hound!