UPDATE: Really not much new to update…. Models still agree that this blocking ridge in the East Pacific will finally break down late this weekend. They also agree that a low will cut-off off the California coast but differ significantly on position, timing, and strength of the low. Really difficult beyond Day 5 to really make any predictions as to what will happen as models don’t agree run to run, let alone with each other. I only feel safe saying the pattern will change. Hopefully for the better. Inversions will only get worse until we can scour out the valleys early next week.
Yesterday’s forecast didn’t verify and the most snow reported anywhere was a few inches. This week will be cold and mostly dry through the weekend. Inversions will develop quickly in the valleys. Only a slight chance for light snow on Thursday as we are clipped by a very weak system dropping down from Canada.
Now the good news…
I made the prediction a couple weeks ago that “true winter” would arrive in mid-December with a breakthrough of the westerlies and the death of the eastern Pacific High. Last week, I made the decision to stick with that prediction despite all models stubbornly camping the high there all the way to Christmas. I figured the with the PNA going negative and the MJO entering phase 4-5 we would stand a good chance to break down the ridge… and the models just weren’t picking up on it yet. The last few days of GFS and EC runs have been consistent in looking better and better at bringing in storms by mid-month. Both the GFS and EC show a low cutting off in the Eastern Pacific and dropping down the west coast this upcoming weekend. Slight differences exist in timing and exact locations of the cut-off. The low will eject inland in So. Cal and perhaps affect Utah weather early next week. It’s looking right now like the jet will bring systems into the Pac NW thereafter and then it will hopefully sag southward with systems hitting the central coast and hitting Utah directly.
As of right now, it looks like we’ll likely get a couple weak systems December 12-17 with the possibility for stronger storms affecting us the week leading up to Christmas. Of course this is all very far out and it is all subject to change but it is definitely light at the end of a long and frustrating tunnel for all of us looking for deep Utah powder.
…The Powder Hound…