Monday AM: Light snow possible today, Black Friday powder day on the horizon…?

Sunday, November 20, 2011 at 8:15 am

MONDAY AM UPDATE:  Fairly significant warm advection streamed into the area last night bringing 5″ or more of snow to the Cottonwoods so far.  Also raised snow levels off valley floors and above benches even.  Expect a few more waves of moisture throughout the day today with scattered showers and snow levels continuing to rise up to 6,500 to 7,000 feet.

Models have been having a lot of trouble with the end of the week system… GFS literally showed no precip for us during yesterday’s 18Z run with the system splitting but flopped back a bit with the 00Z and 06Z.  EC is has been a little more consistent with a light to moderate precip event.  Currently thinking we’d be lucky to get more than a foot in the mountains but things can change quickly.

Ridge is going to try to build in after this trough and should last for at least a week.  More details tonight….

…The Powder Hound….

Previous forecast:

Today and Monday . . . . Warm advection moisture will stream into Utah today with light snow showers possible, primarily in the mountains. Cold temps with light breezes with accompany this off and on light snow at ski areas.

Tuesday and Wednesday….. Ridge builds in with mostly clear and warmer conditions in the mountains.  Inversions will likely develop to some degree in the valleys with haze and cool temperatures trapped.  Light winds should help mix out the valleys on Wednesday ahead of the next system.

Thursday and Friday…. A decent storm system looks to move through, though questions still exist about it’s strength (see below).  Precipitation would likely begin as rain Thursday evening in the valleys before changing to snow overnight and winding down during the day on Friday. MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

Saturday and Sunday….Cool temps remain in the wake of the holiday system.  Shortwave ridging builds overhead in advance of another system possible on Monday.


A low is moving down Cali currently, bringing rain and snow to the Sierras.  This low will meander south before turning east and crossing the desert SW and northern Mex.  The only effect for us in Northern Utah is mostly cloudy conditions with light warm advection snow showers today and tonight.  Only minor (1″ or less) accumulations are expected in the mountains.

Conditions should clear up on Monday with a ridge building for the area for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Thanksgiving day will mark the arrival of our next system with onset of precip likely in the afternoon or evening.  Lots of questions still exist regarding this storm system as the GFS has been trying to split the system as it moves onshore in California. This would obviously not bode well for us, however the EC has been consistent in keeping the system together and trust its consistency more than the GFS at this time.  Today’s run of the GFS is slightly more consolidated with the system than previous runs.

Short wave ridge looks to build next weekend before another system looks to affect our weather on Monday, 11/28.  After that system, models have been hinting and a more substantial ridge building over the area and perhaps keeping us warm and dry for a week or two.  Not necessarily what we want to see as we try to build a base but ridging has to happen sometime.  MJO position supports this idea as well.   Still a long way out so this is all just speculation.

Reminder: Early conditions exist at area resorts and there have already been numerous injuries from people skiing off the designated runs and hitting obstacles.  Be careful if you are venturing off the beaten track…

Happy Shredding!

…The Powder Hound….

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