Good chance for snow this weekend! Model consensus developing

Wednesday, November 9, 2011 at 9:59 am

10-day Snow Forecast:

Saturday/Sunday, November 12-13

  • Above 6K feet, light to moderate accumulations possible
  • Bench locations, light accumulations possible
Models have been all over the place dealing with the cut-off low that is currently tracking far off the west coast. Today, they are in much better agreement with dropping the low south all the way down to the California/Mexico border.  The low then tracks across Baja before lifting into S. Arizona, too far south to affect all but the southernmost areas of the state of Utah.  However, the northern stream brings a secondary low down from BC into northern Utah as a trough develops over the plains this weekend.  At this time, it looks like if the models hold with this solution the mountains may receive 6-12 inches of snow on Saturday and Sunday.  This is a cool northwest flow that will allow a series of shortwaves to moves though the area through early next week.  Bringing light to moderate accumulations in the Wasatch.  Timing of individual impulses is almost impossible this far out so I will just say that each day, Saturday through next Wednesday, has a chance for snow.
 After the middle of next week, it looks like Northern Utah might clear up for a couple days before a more typical pacific trof approaches from the west on the weekend of Nov 19-20.  It looks like there may be another strong trof in the days leading up to Thanksgiving.  Long-range models have been remarkably consistent with these features over the last few runs, so I am starting to put more faith in them.  I’m thinking we may be able to build up a very respectable snowpack by Turkey Day if this verifies.
… The Powder Hounds ….

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  • alex


    • Trough of low pressure. Often shortened to just “trof”