Friday Night storm will split and we will only get half of previous forecast

Wednesday, November 2, 2011 at 9:14 am

10-day Snow Forecast:

Friday-Saturday November 4-5:

  • Above 6K feet, moderate (5-10 inches) accumulations possible
  • Bench Locations, may see up to 5 inches
  • lower valley locations, 1-3 inches

Sunday November 6:

  • Above 6K feet light to moderate  accumulations possible

UPDATE: System looks to split even completely… Right now its hard to see the mountains receiving more than 10 inches or so.  WSF is hoping lake-effect snow south east of the GSL will generate heftier amounts for the resorts in the Cottonwoods.  The good news is that the secondary storm on Sunday is looking a little better… and we may get moderate amounts from that system.  Also, Fantasy Charts showing storm systems continuing there parade through the west through mid-November.  Don’t get too excited… other models are not showing this. Hopefully that verifies! ..PH…

(Previous )Discussion:

Cool, crisp fall weather today and tomorrow.  One of a first hard freezes occurred overnight to help change the colors of any of the remaining verdant trees.  Next system moves into the Sierra Nevada Thursday nigh.  As it crosses the Great Basin, the Low will split with half the energy heading south in S. Utah and Arizona with the other half affecting our area.   We still expect decent snow totals from the storm but perhaps not quite as much as originally expected.  Edited Snow forecast above to indicate this change.  The upside is that there is a good chance for lake-effect or enhanced snows friday night/Saturdays East and Southeast of the Salt Lake.  That includes a good portion of the Salt Lake Valley and SLC.

Another secondary low will track into the area on Sunday, with little if any break in the precip, especially for the mountains.  This system is much weaker but still should bring light to moderate accumulations in the mountains with another inch or two in the valley.  Area should begin to clear out on Monday.

Like I’ve said before, this time of year is a crapshoot beyond six or seven days, as now the GFS and Euro try to build a ridge over the area mid-week next week, which is significantly different than previous models that brought a deep trof into the area.  Models may flip-flop for a couple more runs before settling on a solution so its a little hasty to be making any predictions beyond Monday.

We’ll keep you updated!

…The Powder Hounds…

Teton Gravity Research’s new film One for the Road is playing Friday at the U, definitely worth the ten bucks.  See you there!

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