3:30 PM 9/28/11
Quick update: Hilary moisture idea is dead for the most part. Only isolated showers expected at this time on Sunday and Monday (Oct. 2-3) Storm still on for late next week. (Thursday/Thursday night)
European and GFS models have come into agreement that the pattern will be changing next week. Moisture from Hilary may play a small part in our weather Sunday and Monday w/ a few scattered showers but soaking rains look unlikely at this time. A preliminary cold front will brush us as it passed to our north on Monday, this is increase cloud cover and breeziness but won’t be much of a weather-maker precip-wise.
Attention then turns to a strong fall storm mid to late next week. We favor the ECMWF, which is slower than the GFS and brings the front through on Thursday of next week rather than Wednesday. GFS has backed off on precip since last night but still brings over an inch of liquid precip to the sierras and may bring close to that much in the Wasatch. At this time, wouldn’t be surprised to see 6+ inches above 8000 feet along the wasatch front. However it is too far out for this to be anything more than speculation.
New guidance also suggests a secondary front, perhaps a little colder, coming in later the following weekend (Oct 9). But again, that’s too far out for any specifics whatsoever.
Anyway you look at it, if you’re a skier or boarder, this is good news for some early season powder.
…The Powder Hounds…